Remote Sensing-Based Evaluation of Mangrove Cover Change in Taman Hutan Raya Ngurah Rai, Bali

Abstract

The mangrove ecosystem plays a vital in supporting coastal resilience and mitigating climate change. However, monitoring changes in mangrove cover is necessary to ensure adaptive and sustainable area management. This study aims to investigate change in mangrove area in 2016, 2020 and 2024 within the Ngurah Rai Taman Hutan Raya (Tahura) as well as to identify potential land for mangrove expansion based on land cover and ecological conditions. The methods used include primary data collection through interviews with park manager and local communities and secondary data from Sentinel-2 imagery and previous studies. Data analysis applied remote sensing techniques including the calculation of NDVI and NDMI indicates, vegetation density classification and spatial analysis of mangrove cover change. The results show an expansion of mangrove area from 1.027,609 hectares in 2016 to 1.068,911 hectares (an increase of about 3,86%) in 2024, with a significant rise in the dense vegetation category from 643,055 hectares to 766,344 hectares (approximately 16,01%). The analysis also identified 198,974hectares of water bodies suitable for mangrove expansion, offering considerable potential for additional carbon storage.